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If climate changes that are predicted as a result of global warming turn out to be true, the U.S. Corn Belt will be one of the winners in a world where many agricultural regions will decline. But climate change will still present challenges for Corn Belt farmers, even though the region as a whole will retain its advantaged position for producing corn and soybeans.
A book titled Effects of Climate Change and Variability on Agricultural Production Systems, edited by Purdue University agricultural economist Otto Doering and several others, looks at the implications of global warming on crop production across the Central Corn Belt through about 2060. The researchers conclude that corn, soybeans and winter wheat will continue to be the major crops grown in the Central Corn Belt. They expect farmers to manipulate crop maturities, planting dates and rotations with changes in the growing environment. States included in the study were Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin.
The researchers used two climate change models to evaluate the potential effects of environmental changes. For simplicity, projected yield changes from only one of the models are reported here.
Northern Corn Belt
The climate change model predicts that corn yields from full-season hybrids will increase up to 45% compared with current yields in parts of the Northern Corn Belt. In other parts of the region, corn yields will remain relatively flat.
The study projects soybean yields from full-season varieties to climb 20 to 50%. Winter wheat yields will almost double, although they will still be lower than yields farther south in the Corn Belt.
An economic analysis shows that a corn-soybean rotation will continue to dominate in most parts of the region, although soybeans could play a stronger role. Overall, economic returns could go up $50 to $100/acre because of higher productivity.
Midsection Corn Belt
The model predicts that corn yields from full-season hybrids will hold their own at best and could fall 45% compared to current yields in parts of the midsection of the Corn Belt (central Illinois and central Indiana). It projects soybean yields from full-season varieties to climb 10 to 50% and winter wheat yields to go up 50 to 100%.
An economic analysis shows that, despite higher winter wheat yields, a corn-soybean rotation could crowd out the limited winter wheat now grown in the region. Average returns could hold at today's levels, or be up slightly.
Southern Corn Belt
The study predicts that corn yields from full-season hybrids could fall up to 30% compared with current yields across much of the region as daily maximum temperatures begin to resemble those of states to the south, where corn is less productive. Soybean yields from full-season varieties could climb 10 to 30% across much of the region. Winter wheat yields could be up 10 to 20%.
An economic analysis shows that a corn-soybean rotation could nearly crowd out winter wheat. At best, average returns are projected to hold at today's levels or could fall about $30/acre.
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