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AT THIS time a year ago, retailers were scurrying to stock up on fungicides to quell panic among soybean growers about Asian soybean rust (ASR) and finalizing plans for wall-to-wall spraying should the dread disease take hold.
This year, the sense of panic has all but disappeared. But the ASR threat probably is greater than it was last spring.
“My general sense, based on winter weather and early reports of ASR on kudzu in the South, there seems to be an elevated risk of ASR in 2006 compared to a year ago,” says Tim Sickman of Opti-Crop, a crop consulting service headquartered in Owensboro, KY.
Alison Robertson, an extension plant pathologist at Iowa State University, concurs with Sickman's assessment. “A year ago at this time [early April], ASR had been reported in one county in Florida,” she says. “This year, there have been reports of infected kudzu from 22 locations across the Southeast,” plus an isolated report of infested soybeans in Texas, which have been harvested and thus are no longer a threat.
“In all likelihood, ASR will spread quicker on kudzu than it did last year, assuming that environmental conditions are conducive,” Robertson says. “We will probably see an exponential increase in inoculum in the coming weeks as kudzu leafs out.”
Only time will tell if this translates into widespread ASR outbreaks this year. “The wild card is the weather,” Sickman says. “It is absolutely anyone's guess as to whether conditions will align themselves and result in widespread ASR outbreaks. We are dealing with so many unknowns.”
Overwintering kudzu
Since ASR is so new in the U.S., scientists are just beginning to understand how ASR behaves under U.S. environmental conditions. Although ASR activity was mild last year, the agricultural industry — from university scientists, to crop-protection companies, retailers, consultants and growers — picked up valuable insights on ASR behavior and gave ASR surveillance and control programs a test run as well.
Already, the two “ASR-era” winters in the U.S. have taught some lessons. In 2004-2005, hard frost eliminated overwintering inoculum as far south as central Florida. But this last winter, ASR survived on kudzu north of the freeze line, which went as far south as the Gulf Coast and northern Florida. Surviving kudzu was found growing in protected areas such as under bridges and beneath building overhangs. These survivors are the reason there have been more early-season ASR reports.
Early-season indicators
The fact that ASR reports are concentrated in the Southeast, and not in Texas, probably is good news for the Midwest, where the majority of soybeans are grown. But all eyes will be on weather patterns — and sentinel plots — across the South as the soybean crop matures.
Robertson points out that, in early spring, winds along the Gulf can blow to the west. This could deposit ASR spores in the Mississippi Delta and into Texas, which would increase the ASR risk for the Midwest once southerly summer wind patterns take hold. “If we see a lot of rust activity on the Gulf Coast in April and May, that increases the risk of getting rust in the Midwest in July,” she says.
Hurricane activity also could be important. Sickman says that hurricane forecasters are predicting another active season. Major hurricanes could drive ASR spores into the Mid-South and farther north.
“Last year, Arlene, Dennis and Katrina all tracked across the Ohio River Valley,” he notes. “It stands to reason that they probably deposited some ASR spores in this area. But weather conditions turned hot and dry, which aren't favorable to development of infection.”
Learning from 2005
Robertson and her colleagues at ISU have summarized lessons learned in 2005 that can be applied this year. Here are their suggestions:
Keep informed of ASR developments. Monitor reports from ASR sentinel plots in addition to scouting local fields.
“At early stages, this disease is very hard to detect in the field,” Robertson says. “Rather than spend hours and hours crawling through a soybean field looking for signs of rust, regularly check rust Web sites and monitor rust development in sentinel plots in your area.”
Stay abreast of ASR developments in the U.S. by checking a favorite ASR Web site regularly. USDA's Web site at www.sbrusa.net is a clearinghouse for sentinel plots in the U.S.
“We learned last year that it is not easy to accurately identify soybean rust in the field at very low levels,” Robertson notes. “Last year, initial infections were discovered when the disease was present on very few plants at very low levels, and always in the bottom of the canopy.” Suspect leaves were incubated in humid conditions, then checked under a microscope.
Be aware of what is going on in sentinel plots in your state. If you have the luxury of not being on the ASR front line in the South, be sure to follow sentinel plots to your south as well.
“The history of rust diseases is that they gradually move northward, usually 20 to 30 miles a day,” Robertson says. “Because of this, sentinel plots serve as a good early warning system.”
Consider spore trap information as a warning, not confirmation, of an impending outbreak. At this point, it is unclear how to use information from rainfall and slide-based spore trap systems set up by USDA and Syngenta Crop Protection, Robertson says. The monitoring systems may help identify spread patterns and encourage more frequent monitoring of sentinel plots, but they can't predict an outbreak.
Even if spores are viable, both the soybean growth stage and environmental conditions may not be conducive to an outbreak. For ASR to proliferate on a host, temperatures must be moderately cool (between 60° and 85°F), relative humidity must be relatively high (75 to 85%) and plant leaves must be wet for at least six hours, and possibly longer.
Know when to spray. ASR isn't likely to take hold until soybeans are flowering, or later. “In the U.S., it is only when plants begin flowering that we see disease coming in,” Robertson says. “This is different than in Brazil, where plants can be infected earlier, possibly because of the very high disease pressure they have there.”
Bottom line: If spores are present, but plants aren't flowering, there is no need to spray. Also, if plants have matured beyond growth stage 6, when beans have filled, spraying for rust won't have any impact.
Heed area-wide treatment recommendations. Field-by-field recommendations will be difficult, Robertson says. Because of the difficulty of identifying ASR in its early stages, plant pathologists in many states are likely to make generalized treatment recommendations based on where ASR has been identified in sentinel plots.
“In most cases, if a scout or grower positively identifies rust in a field, it will be too late to spray,” she says. Before pustules form, ASR is difficult to differentiate from other plant diseases. After pustules form, ASR is easier to identify, but it can rapidly progress to the point that a fungicide would be ineffective.
“If you find pustules on a few leaves on 100 plants, it is not too late to treat and save most of your yields,” Robertson says. “Once we see rust on more than 10 leaves out of 100, a fungicide application may have minimal effect.”
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